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ثلاثة قوانین خفیة على كل مستثمر التعرف علیھا | اكاديمية التداول
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ثلاثة قوانین خفیة على كل مستثمر التعرف علیھا

 

في دراسة اقتصادیة تمت تحت إشراف القناة التلفزیونیة الأمریكیة س. ان . ان . حول البحث عن نمط خط اتجاه الاستثمارات، خرج الباحثون بحقائق تستحق الاھتمام، لأن النتائج التي توصلت إلیھا ھذه الدراسة كانت بمثابة قوانین یمكن الاستفادة منھا في فھم أمور غامضة في الاستثمارات، وھي قوانین غیر مكتوبة، ولكنھا تتبع في روحھا وفكرتھا القوانین العلمیة المعروفة، والقانون كما ھو معروف أمر أو فعل ثابت ویظھر دائما بتكرر الظروف المصاحبة أو المولدة له وتكون له دائما نفس النتائج، ونفس المفعول.

 

وقد تمت دراسة الاستثمارات في الأسھم والسندات الأمریكیة على مدى مائة سنة مضت، ولاحظ الباحثون وجود تشابه كبیر في اتجاهات الأسھم بعد التقلبات الاقتصادیة سواء أكانت سلبیة أم إیجابیة، وخرج الباحثون بھذه القوانین العجیبة، وھي في منطوقھا تخالف ما ھو معروف في دنیا العلوم الریاضیة:

 

القانون الأول:

 

إن ما یھبط من الأسھم في قیمته یعود إلى الارتفاع في قیمته لاحقا.

 

وھذا القانون كان نتیجة متابعة سوق الأسھم والسندات في فترات الركود الاقتصادي فقد تبین أنه خلال المائة سنة الماضیة كان ھناك ٣٢ مرة تعرض فیھا السوق الأمریكي إلى فترة ركود مؤثرة كان أطولھا ھي الفترة بین ١٢ سبتمبر ١٩٣٩ والتي انتھت في ٢٨ إبریل ١٩٤٢ وبتتبع ھذا الركود المتوالي نجد أن ھناك مقابله فترة نمو وازدھار تتبع ھذه الفترات الصعبة، ووجد الباحثون أن ھناك عودة قویة لكل الأسھم التي عانت من الھبوط في فترات الركود، ووجدوا أنھا تعود قویة ونشیطة وفعالة.

 

ومن ھذا القانون یستفید الباحث بأن للصبر قیمة وفائدة مالیة كبیرة، فمن یستسلم ویبیع في فترة الركود بالأثمان الرخیصة فإنه یخسر فرصة التعویض عن خسائره بعد عودة الازدھار للسوق، وھي تأتي لاحقة وسریعة، فأطول مدة ركود كما ھو واضح كانت عامین ونصف.

 

وعیب ھذا القانون أنه وإن كان یمكن التنبؤ ببدایة فترات الركود إلا أنه من الصعب معرفة موعد الانتھاء وعودة الطرف الموجب.

 

القانون الثاني:

 

مكاسب الیوم لا تتكرر غدا.

 

ومن نتائج ھذه الدراسة المستفیضة یتبین أن الطفرات الیومیة أو الموسمیة أمر لا یتكرر تباعا، فما كان ثمینا في ھذا الیوم فإنه قد لن یكون كذلك غدا. وھذا لا یعني أن عمر النجاح قصیر، ولكن النجاح ھو ومضة تختفي ثم تعود، لذا فإن الومیض یجب أن لا یكون ھو الداعي للشراء، فقد انتھى. وعلى المستثمر أن یصبر حتى یحین موعد الطفرة القادمة والتي لا یعرف موعدھا.

 

ومن ھذا القانون یستفید المستثمر بأن ملاحقة الأسھم المطلوبة والتي یقبل علیھا المستثمرون بعد أن حققت نجاحا أو قبولا شدیدا، قد لا یصل إلى ما یطلبه، فھذه المكاسب ھي سحابة قد تعود بعد فترة ولكنھا لیست لیوم غد.

 

القانون الثالث:

 

الواقعیة تتغلب على الطفرات.

 

ویمكن أن نكتب ھذا القانون بكلمات أخرى وھي أن لا تتحسر على ما فات، فالكثیر من المستثمرین یتذكرون الطفرات وینتظرونھا، وبمتابعة جمیع الطفرات التي حدثت نجد أن ھناك عودة إلى القانون الطبیعي، وھو تساوي معدلات الأرباح على المدى البعید.

 

ومن أمثلة ھذا القانون الذي تذكره الدراسة ھو أن الكل كان یعجبه ویحلم بأن تبقى السوق المالیة التي تمتع بھا الاقتصاد الأمریكي والعالمي في الفترة بین ١٩٩٥-٢٠٠٠ م، حیث ظھر ما یسمى تقنیة الاتصالات التي أنشأت شركات بمبالغ خیالیة، وظھرت طبقة أغنیاء لم یكن لھم فرصة بالثروات لولا ھذه التقنیة الحدیثة التي تضخمت فیھا الأعمال، وظھرت فیھا شركات عالمیة، وتضخمت فیھا الأسعار، ولم تحقق أي أرباح مجدیة، وكانت كل ھذه الظواھر ضد المبادئ الاقتصادیة المتعارف علیھا، بأن كل قیمة لھا ثمن، وكل ثمن له قیمة. وفي ھذه الطفرة لم تكن القیمة تعادل الثمن، فكان لا بد من الانھیار.

 

لذا فإن القانون یقضي بأن جمیع الطفرات ھي موجة عارمة ولكنھا ستخبو وتعود تتعادل مع مستوى سطح بحر الاستثمار. ومن ھذا القانون یمكن تحذیر المستثمرین من الانغماس في التمتع بأیام الطفرات بدون حساب لیوم العودة إلى الواقع، وعلى الرغم من عدم معرفة موعده إلا أنه قادم بحكم منطوق ھذا القانون والمبني على أحداث الماضي.

 

قوانین عالمیة:

 

ھذه الدراسة قامت على مراجعة لتاریخ الاستثمار في الولایات المتحدة الأمریكیة، والولایات المتحدة الأمریكیة لدیھا أقوى وأغنى سوق مالي، وقد یعتقد البعض أن للسوق الأمریكي خصائص لا تنطبق على الأسواق الأخرى أو الأسواق الجدیدة، ولكن منطوق ھذه القوانین ھو أقرب إلى الواقع منه إلى الخیال أو التطرف، وما ینطبق على السوق الأمریكي لابد أن ینطبق على الأسواق المالیة الأخرى.

 

1 Responses on ثلاثة قوانین خفیة على كل مستثمر التعرف علیھا"

  1. Profile photo of ibrahim ibrahim says:

    اشكر الآكاديمية على هدا الجهد المخلص والمثمر وأسا الله ان يمد كل مخلص كل مخلص بالصة والعافية.
    جزاكم الله عنا كل خير ورحم الله والدينا ووالديكم . وفقكم الله لما يحبه ويرضاه.

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